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News Observations People Politics

Hurricane Coverage — “Just The Facts Mam, Just The Facts…”

I’m in Orlando, Florida. Over the past week or longer I have listened to hurricane Irma news that has become thinly masked hysteria and propaganda. After watching hurricane Harvey devastate Huston and parts of Texas, I decided to be fully prepared for a possible hurricane in Florida this time of year. Having gone through a number of storms including Charley, right here in Winter Park, Florida, I knew how to prepare. Still, I’m grateful for the information communicated on television and online. It is important everyone be prepared and knows what to do.

Except for periodic checks, I am keeping TV news and the Weather Channel turned off. I appreciate this hurricanes severity and I believe everyone should take it seriously. Most reporters mean well, but there seems to be some hysterical reporting of events and tracking data on television. I have watched the predicted tracks of Irma for a week; the European Model, American models etc. and every day they have been predicting an imminent northward track for the storm. First it was up the east coast of Florida, then the center, and now the western coast. But hurricane Irma just keeps heading west. All of the predictions based on the computer models continue to be wrong. The only thing they got correct is that Irma is headed west. If this storm should head west into the Gulf of Mexico, few people will ever trust these forecasts in the future. Even now a well-known AM talk show radio host was claiming it is all “fake news,” before he evacuated the state.

Hurricane Irma is a force of nature and as such unpredictable in a total sense. It is a huge hurricane, 400 miles wide they keep saying, while they show a huge cone sweeping up the Florida peninsula to the north practically to Pennsylvania. Yes the storm is 400 miles wide, but the highest hurricane force winds only extend out about 70 miles from the eye of the storm.   In addition that’s 200 miles on each side of the center. The cone covering the anticipated but speculative track of the storm is misleading.

On Saturday afternoon, September ninth, the storm’s winds dropped to 135 mph and the hurricane became category 3. They are still predicting a northward turn up the west coast of Florida. Currently the storm is heading west, battering Cuba not showing any sign of turning north. Will it ultimately turn north? Probably it will do so, but where and when is not known. What should be said by the coverage is “we really don’t know where this hurricane will go. But here’s our best guess.”

All of the reporters and experts were quick to say that no one should be complacent, the hurricane could still be a category 5 when it goes through the straight and gains strength when it turns North and devastates the entire state of Florida, including Tampa and Orlando. But if the eye of the storm goes over Tampa, there will not be the same impact on Orlando as Tampa.

The governor of Florida is constantly saying “catastrophic,” “life threatening,” and “devastating.” “Worse hurricane in the history of mankind!” And won’t we be grateful and amazed at how well he handled this catastrophe and elect him to the senate. It is obvious that everyone, from politicians to television outlets have decided to purposefully exaggerate conditions in the name of “it’s better to be prepared.” “People won’t take things seriously enough if we tell them the truth or include any optimistic predictions.” It may be true that some “people” will do that. But facts are either true or false. Opinions should be voiced as opinions not reality.

I listened to a reporter on the weather channel increase numbers substantially from what was just reported by the channel’s weather expert. She quickly rounded off the numbers higher. Even the width of Florida shrunk from about 145 miles to 130 miles. Hmm, at the bottom of the peninsula it’s only a few feet! This “spin” of facts is not good. In the end it destroys trust in the reporting. It causes hysteria and panic.

Warnings are fine. But the facts should not be distorted for any reason, however important anyone may think it is to motivate viewers. Distorting and exaggerating the facts causes panic and hysteria. Like people fighting over water and stocking up on enough food for weeks. Of course if you live next to the ocean and a hurricane is approaching you should evacuate of find a shelter. But you need to be able to trust the information is factual and make an informed decision about what you will do. Because of all the spin and hype people just don’t trust what they are hearing.

I am prepared for this storm hitting Orlando in the next couple days. I’ve taken in all the furniture and other things from balconies and front porch. I stocked up on water, spare batteries and food. I am ready. I will work and/or relax. If I need a break read a book or as long as there is electricity find a movie to watch that is not apocalyptic. Definitely do some meditating.

J R Martin

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News Observations Politics

Donald Trump Show – Spin, Frame, False Equivalency

trump
Illustration Donald Honkey

Donald Trump, as he conducts his wrestling show run for the Presidency of the United States, is entertaining to many people. In a perverse way politics and Trump have become a comedy reality show. Watching Trump’s altercation with Univision reporter Jorge Ramos on August 25, 2015, may have given the public a brief glimpse into the narcissistic, pathological  mind of Mr. Trump, not so obviously seen in public up until now.

Jorge Ramos knew he would need to ask his question and hold his ground because Trump had refused to talk to him previously. Trump did not answer the question being asked, instead he showed disdain for the reporter dismissing Ramos in a demeaning fashion. Trump then had his bodyguards physically manhandle and push the reporter out of the room. Outside one of the bodyguards can be heard telling Ramos, an American citizen, to go back to Mexico. Other reporters in the room asked Trump why he wouldn’t answer Ramos’s question and had Mr. Ramos removed. Trump quickly tried to paint Ramos, a respected, veteran reporter, as out-of-order and crazy.

 

(This video showing Trump telling is people to throw the reporter out etc has been removed from YouTube.)

Trump appears to be a natural at “Framing” arguments, “Spin,” and “False Equivalency” posturing. First he frames his argument or answer to any question on his own terms. This often includes a “False Equivalency” comparison. In a pathological moment, he then believes what he spins is true.

One of the bogus arguments in defense of Trump’s behavior at this press conference is to compare his actions with the reporter, to being appropriate and not like Bernie Sanders’ reaction to the “Black Lives Matter” protesters that confronted Sanders at a rally. Since Trump has publicly stated that he would never be like Bernie Sanders and give up the stage to protesters it is likely Trump over reacted to Ramos to prove, once again, how strong and tough he is. The only thing Trump needed afterward, was to present Ramos as an unreasonable interloper.

But the situations were totally different. This is a false equivalency frame. Ramos was not a protester; he is a serious, credentialed Univision reporter, asking a question, at a news conference. Trump’s current animosity to Univision, he’s suing them for not running his Beauty Pageant show, also played a part. After Trump had Ramos removed from the room, he was asked why by other reporters. Trump’s response was to immediately spin that Ramos was “screaming,” and out-of-order. The video of the confrontation shows something else.   Ramos did not have a microphone, so he may have been speaking louder than normal to be heard, not screaming. Screaming implies, emotional hysteria, a spin word to make Ramos appear irrational or angry, and the belligerent, annoyed Trump as rational. Trump’s reaction to reporters after Ramos was ejected was pathological lying, not just spinning.

Photo: Univision reporter Jorge Ramos (L) is escorted from Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s news conference before his “Make America Great Again Rally” at the Grand River Center in Dubuque, Iowa, Tuesday, August 25, 2015. REUTERS/Ben Brewer
Photo: Univision reporter Jorge Ramos (L) is escorted from Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s news conference before his “Make America Great Again Rally” at the Grand River Center in Dubuque, Iowa, Tuesday, August 25, 2015. REUTERS/Ben Brewer

As far as Bernie Sanders and the protestors are concerned, Sanders appears to actually share the concerns of the protesters. He has been active in all sorts of civil rights activities his entire political career. Instead of creating a confrontation with protesters he simply gave them a chance to speak their minds. This was not a sign of weakness; it was a sign of strength, good will, judgement and experience. In his confrontation with Jorge Ramos Trump has, as he did with Megan Kelly, demonstrated once again his own insecurity and pathological nature.

The Republican establishment would like Donald Trump to self-destruct or go away because he bluntly campaigns on all the “dog whistle” rhetoric the Republicans have been using to manipulate voters. The majority of these issues are fear, race, religious or ethnic based concerns. Trump attacks and scapegoats immigrants unfiltered at the same time as he advocates hedge fund brokers paying their fare share of taxes. He has plugged in to all the gripes Americans have both left and right. If the Republicans outright dump him he could run as a third-party candidate. His support would come from all the, mainly white, voters who feel disenfranchised based on all the right-wing propaganda they have been fed by Republicans.  But the right-wing, along with Fox News, has mounted a campaign against Trump. Democrats don’t want to help them too much at this point since they believe they have a strong candidate in Hillary Clinton or someone else, and that Americans wouldn’t really vote for  Donald Trump.

It is possible that the best-case scenario for Trump to actually become President would be to run as a third-party candidate and pull his majority from both parties. Moderate Republicans and Democrats either don’t vote or protest vote for Trump. Libertarians, New Regan Democrats, NRA supporters, Christian Fundamentalist, Anti Abortion, Tea Party and White Supremacist form the base of the third-party. At this point support comes in from Koch Brothers groups hoping to partner somehow with Trump. Trump campaigns on issues that are real or imagined, with grandiose solutions that are pure fantasy, like building a nineteen hundred mile wall along the border with Mexico and getting them to pay for it.

Thinking Donald Trump is only entertainment and that he really doesn’t “have a chance,” if he becomes the candidate, should be reconsidered. Going back over the years in other countries, there have been unlikely leaders who emerge on issues scapegoating minorities or perceived groups like immigrants. We think that here in the United States we have too many checks and balances for anything like a dictator to emerge. Many of these checks and balances have been or are being eroded by the far right. The right of all citizens to vote, separation of church and state, and women’s rights are among the many being curtailed by factions of the Republican Party.

The steps that any administration would need to take to deport eleven million immigrants would necessitate totalitarian policies. It would promote American pogroms against groups that are suspected of being or harboring immigrants. Documented immigrants, recent American Citizens, Latin, Asian, Black and Middle Eastern looking people would be harassed. The disorder that results could lead to martial law.

Donald Trump knows how to entertain and play a part. His act is brash, pushy, egotistical, tell-it-like-he thinks-it-is, and faux entrepreneur. But those qualities are also those of a narcissistic psychopathic bully. These traits were clearly demonstrated during the Jorge Ramos confrontation if you watch Trump’s  posture, face and listen to is voice during the exchange.   Proceed with caution.

James R Martin, Documentary Filmmaker.

Categories
Observations Politics

IT’S NOT “THE ECONOMY STUPID”

Article and Photograph by J R Martin

The “economy” is where it is today because of factors that began in the Bush/Cheney administration over an eight year period causing a budget surplus to turn into a huge deficit, unemployment to rise, and involved the country in two wars. The United States  sank into a major financial depression triggered by banking industry malfeasance. In 2012 the economy is slowly healing despite the unyielding efforts of the Republican Party far right radicals, Neo-Cons and others to obstruct any policy that would help the country heal faster.

President Obama has succeeded despite this adversarial, partisan climate to not only avoid a long term depression in the US, but to also create over four million jobs, save the US auto industry, reduce unemployment and end one of the wars. His landmark achievement, a progressive bill to reform healthcare, has been totally misrepresented by the far right and then used against him.

Opponents of the Affordable Health Care Act and other accomplishments of President Obama have adhered to the propaganda axiom that recommends taking someone’s strengths and turning them against them. In recent months the radical right, the Romney campaign, Fox Fake News and Republican politicians have even tried to take the elimination of Osama Bin Laden under Presidents watch and turn it against him using alleged leaks about the mission afterward.

The attack on the President is amplified by “framing” positive accomplishments in a negative light. Of course this makes it difficult for the person being attacked to showcase his administrations accomplishments. Every trick in the book has been used to destroy not only the economy but the President himself with countless personal attacks, overt and “dog whistle” racism, not to mention demeaning rhetoric never used against a President of the United States.  The President is essentially a moderate Democrat but his adversaries try to “frame” him as “socialist” who is somehow foreign. Everyone knows the President was born in the US but the Republicans support “birther” nonsense to spin the Presidents credibility in a negative way.

Is the economy as bad as it’s made out to be?  Is the “economy” the only standard by which we judge the success of our democracy? Should we take to heart all the predictions of gloom and doom put out by economists who all have different theories of what is needed and what should be done “to turn the economy around?  The “economy” is turned around and making slow by steady progress against the head winds of partisan obstructionism. We don’t have a “do nothing congress,” we have “do nothing Republicans” stopping congress from doing anything. Now we have a presidential candidate who’s only plan is to go “back to the future” and repeat what didn’t work before? A candidate who is getting advice from Dick Cheney!

As far as the barrage of negative predictions and reporting by media pundits and bombastic radio personalities there is a self-serving tendency to stay negative in order to prove themselves right. Even when there is positive news it is spun or framed to favor their point-of-view. For example, when a “Jobs Report” comes out stating the fact that say, 250,000 new jobs were created, it is reported as ONLY 250,000 jobs were created. It could also have been reported as ” 250,000 new jobs were created, continuing the trend of new job creation each month for the past 24 months.” There is very little original thinking in the media industry. A new development reported in the New York Times, ends up being reported or misreported by Broadcast, Radio and Cable shows. The negative spin on all economic and political news is like a virus that has reached epidemic proportions.

We live in an era of instant gratification. We want everything to happen now. We are told that what took eight years to destroy should take a year or two to recreate. Progress is being intentionally held back by forces who don’t give a damn about the economy. billionaires are set for life, why would they care if the economy is bad while they achieve goals that have to do with ideology, power and control? Goals that in the long term will make them even richer.

Using all sorts of fear tactics the billionaires backing Romney have convinced a large number of people that the government is their enemy except when the billionaires candidates are in power. But the actual reality is that in every State where the Republicans gained control in 2010 they have enacted laws in which their state governments restrict the rights of citizens in many areas including the right to vote, women’s health issues and the rights of working people, especially in the public sector. They campaigned on creating jobs. In fact they have eliminated jobs, refused federal stimulus money and hampered commerce in their own states.

This upcoming Presidential election is not about the economy it is about whether the United States will remain a democracy of and by the people, with majority rule deciding issues. It’s about the middle-class surviving and flourishing or being reduced to working for minimum wages.

We voted for President Obama because the Bush/Cheney polices that favored the very rich were hurting the country. Bush/Cheney wars and tax cuts ruined the economy. Cheney’s “crony capitalism” (connections with Haliburton and the oil industry) gave billions of dollars away in government contracts which often didn’t deliver the goods as ordered.

Now we have Romney the  “vulture capitalist” who is too arrogant to release his tax returns running on a Bush/Cheney platform. In the words of Romney’s wife, “…you got all you need to know,” this after one year worth of taxes were partially released.  But it’s more than arrogance, Romney is quite possibly hiding the fact that he’s a billionaire. It’s likely that he has stretched he limits of ethical financial behavior and the tax laws. That the tax returns for certain years may well prove he has been lying about his involvement in Bain Capital from 1999 to 2002.

Moderate and Independent Americans of all persuasions have only one choice.  Give the current administration four more years and a clear majority in the house and senate. The economy will continue to improve. Employment will increase. The deficit will be reduced. College graduates will find jobs again. Teachers, firefighters, policemen and public sector workers will be able to do their work again. The war in Afghanistan will end. Our troops will come home. There will  not be another war like Iraq started in Iran. Veterans will get the kind of aid they need in all areas.  Social Security will not be destroyed. Medicare will not be turned into a voucher program. Students will not be dropped from their parents healthcare policies.

This country and working middle-class  does better when Democrats have control of the government. FDR brought the country out of a major depression, created jobs, and enacted Social Security. Under the Clinton Administration a surplus was created — there was no deficit until Bush/Cheney. President Obama has been systemically obstructed in his efforts to create jobs and move the economy by Republicans. Since 2010 the Republicans have had control of the House of Representative and have done nothing but obstruct progress. Republicans in lockstep have voted to repeal the Affordable Health Care act thirty-one times but have not created one stimulus bill for the economy.

The choice is clear move the country forward, save the American way of life or let the ultra conservative billionaires create a country with only two classes, the super rich and the poor.